Global economy to shrink by 4.5% in 2020 as China’s GDP grows by 1.6%

According to the research data analyzed and gathered by, the global economy is set to decline by 4.5% in 2020.

In 2019, the global GDP grew 2.6% and by 2021, it is projected to grow by 5.0%. South Africa will suffer the hardest blow with an 11.5% decline.

According to WeForum, the economic shock experienced in 2020 is three times worse than the 2008 financial crisis in terms of annual GDP decline.

China’s economy could be worth $14.6 trillion in 2020

The OECD report reveals that all G20 economies apart from China will suffer a recession in 2020. China is set to grow by 1.6% in 2020 according to World Bank projections, compared to a 5.2% global contraction. 

Based on a report from CNN, China’s economy could be worth $14.6 trillion by the end of 2020, giving it a 17.5% share of the global GDP.

During Q3 2020, China’s economy surged by 4.9% year-over-year (YoY), up from 3.2% in Q2 2020. In the first week of October 2020, tourist spending surged by 70% and reached $70 billion. Over 630 million people traveled around the country, 80% more than in 2019.

On the other hand, the US GDP is set to sink by 3.8% in 2020 according to the OECD. However, Morgan Stanley projects that it will rebound to pre-pandemic levels by Q2 2021, two quarters earlier than previous forecasts anticipated.

For the G20 as a whole, there will be a 4.1% GDP decline while the Euro zone will drop by 7.9%. In addition to South Africa, other hard-hit countries in the G20 will include Argentina (-11.2%), Italy (-10.5%), Mexico (-10.2%), India (-10.2%) and the UK (-10.1%). As a whole, the G20 will shoot up by 5.7% in 2020 while the Euro zone will grow by 5.1%.

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